Heatwaves, droughts, and floods can severely affect people’s lives, especially those who depend on farming for a living. Crop failures and dwindling water supplies can threaten some of the most basic human rights, such as access to food, water and essential services.
In recent years, scientists have increasingly drawn attention to a natural climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which can intensify these risks. El Niño can significantly alter weather patterns around the world, increasing the likelihood of droughts in some regions and unusually heavy rainfall in others.
While El Niño is not directly caused by climate change, its impacts can be compounded by rising global temperatures and existing inequalities. For communities already struggling with poverty or limited access to essential services, the consequences can be particularly severe.
What is El Niño and why does it matter?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs periodically, typically every two to seven years, and can influence weather conditions across the world.
The climate phenomenon disrupts normal atmospheric circulation, changing rainfall patterns and temperatures in different regions. As a result, some countries may experience prolonged droughts, while others face heavier rainfall, flooding and landslides. These changes in weather patterns can in turn severely affect agriculture and people’s ability to maintain their livelihoods.
How severe could the next El Niño be?
This year, scientists are warning that El Niño could be particularly severe, with a 75 per cent chance of becoming the strongest on record. El Niño conditions developed in June 2026 and have intensified rapidly. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a more than 90 per cent probability of a very strong El Niño event between October and December.
In addition, the phenomenon is unfolding against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, prompting concerns about its potentially severe impacts on vulnerable communities, particularly in parts of the Asia-Pacific region, eastern and southern Africa, and Central and South America.
How does El Niño affect human rights?
Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, its consequences can threaten fundamental human rights, such as the rights to food, water, health, adequate housing and education.
One of the most immediate concerns is food security. Prolonged droughts can damage crops and reduce agricultural production. As food becomes scarcer, prices can rise, making it harder for families to afford nutritious meals. In Papua New Guinea, for example, these effects are already being felt. Drought conditions have damaged crops and disrupted local food production, contributing to shortages and higher prices for staple foods. For families who rely on farming for both food and income, the loss of a harvest can make it difficult to meet their basic needs. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), some 1.2 million people are estimated to require direct food relief because of the impact of El Niño.
Access to clean water is another major concern. During prolonged droughts, rivers and reservoirs may dry up, leaving communities struggling to obtain enough water for drinking, cooking and sanitation. Water shortages can also increase the risk of disease, particularly in communities with limited access to healthcare services.
In regions where El Niño can bring unusually heavy rainfall, floods can destroy homes and infrastructure, forcing families to leave their communities. Contaminated water supplies can also increase the risk of waterborne diseases, while damaged infrastructure may prevent people from accessing essential medical care and education.
Children are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of El Niño. According to UNICEF, their developing bodies are more susceptible to malnutrition, extreme heat and disease, and disruptions to healthcare, education and water supplies can have lasting effects on their well-being. For example, during the 2023–2024 El Niño, nearly 300,000 children were at risk of severe acute malnutrition across six southern African countries. The situation is particularly severe in conflict-affected regions, where declining humanitarian funding leaves families with fewer resources to cope with climate-related emergencies.
What are governments and the UN doing to protect people?
While El Niño cannot be prevented, governments and UN agencies are already taking steps to reduce its impact on vulnerable communities.
In Papua New Guinea, for instance, the government has instructed local authorities to identify communities at risk and prepare measures to protect food security.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) has activated early action plans in several countries, including South Sudan, Uganda and Guatemala, providing assistance to help communities prepare for droughts and floods. Together with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), WFP is seeking funding to protect nearly nine million people across 22 countries. Planned measures include cash assistance, drought-resistant seeds, water storage systems and support for livestock.
The broader challenge of protecting vulnerable communities from climate-related disasters is also relevant to COP31, the upcoming UN climate conference in Türkiye. Discussions on climate adaptation and early warning systems will provide an opportunity for governments to address how developing countries can better prepare for extreme weather. Strengthening resilience to the impacts of El Niño remains a priority for the international community to ensure that vulnerable communities are better protected from extreme weather events.